The regime
breeds enemies rather than friends
Ethiopia is
most likely to face immense challenges in the years ahead from a man-made
governance hurdle of ethnic and religious divisions, a regime that is unwilling
to change and an opposition that lacks a national purpose and suffers from
fragmentation and wise leadership. “It is probable that the new government will
be more fragile, the security forces more influential and internal stability
endangered,” says ICG. This is generally true in the Ogaden, Gambella, the Omo
Valley, Oromia and pockets of the Amhara and Beni-Shangul regions. In its 2013
report to the UN, the Ethiopian Women’s Human Rights Alliance (EWHRA) points
out that “The Anti-Terrorist Law allows the government to promote policies
which foster ethnic and religious hostilities and to label opposition groups as
terrorist organizations, thereby eliminating all dissent and creating an
environment of fear of reprisals for challenging the government.” Especially
worrisome is deliberate provocation of ethnic conflict that pities one group
against another; and ethnic cleansing and displacement that forces people to
revolt. “Ethnicity permeates politics of the country and the ruling party has
been unable and unwilling to create a broader political base in this complex
and diverse country. The current party dominates the political scene and
governs through limited popular participation.”
In short,
for Ethiopia to protect its national unity and territorial integrity, the
TPLF/EPRDF has no other choice but embrace Ethiopian nationalism and Ethiopian
long-term interest. It must recognize that trust of the vast majority won’t
occur without genuine reform. The history of the core group, the TPLF, which
commands political and economic power will not happen through fear and
repression. It facilitated the secession of Eritrea and made Ethiopia
land-locked. It mobilized Ethiopians, sacrificed the lives of 70,000 to 100,000
lives and squandered billions of Birr for a war whose end game proved to be a
disaster. I should like to ask the reader a simple question. If the late Prime
Minister Meles Zenawi and his cohort had the resolve to defend Badme, an
Ethiopian territory in the Tigray Region, what motivated his successor, Prime
Minister Haile Mariam Dessalegn to cede Ethiopian territory that previous
governments defended to the Sudan? I refer to the secret deal of transferring
Ethiopian territory to the Sudan and by offering the false argument that it was
simply “implementing agreements reached by previous governments.” The new PM
offers no credible evidence.
Colonel
Mengistu Hailemariam, former President of Ethiopia and the only surviving head
of state rejected the story and asked the ruling party to provide concrete
evidence. Therefore, the ruling party has no integrity. In the later example,
it decided to take the Sudanese position rather than siding with the Ethiopian
people and defending Ethiopia’s national interests. Ironically and regardless
of the rhetoric the Sudanese Government has close military ties with Egypt.
Given looming dangers, especially threats from the Arab World (Egypt is the
leader), the governing party must change its ways now. It must listen to
dissenting voices and accommodate all stakeholders in order to survive and to gain
legitimacy. Ethiopia possesses untapped resources and deserves to join breakout
nations that are on the way to prosperity. In the 1980s and early 1990s,
Sub-Saharan Africa was considered a “basket case.” Today, the region is home to
some of the fastest growing economies in the world. Ethiopia is included in
this newly emerging club. However, as the above analysis shows, it lags behind
in numerous critical areas, freedom, political pluralism, the use of
information technology for development, per capita income, etc. Ninety percent
of the population is poor. Thousands of young people leave the country each
year. This in itself shows that the foundation of its growth is shallow. “A
nation can climb the ladder (of growth) for a decade, two decades, three decades,
only to hit a snake and fall back to the bottom, where it must start over
again, and may be again and again.” There is no doubt that quantitatively,
Ethiopia grew fast in the late 1960s and fell in the late 1970s, 1980s and
early 1990s. It began to climb up again since 2005. There is no certainty that
growth will continue at the same level unless fundamental reforms are
carried-out.
Commentary
Part III will focus on why squandering Ethiopia’s natural resources is
dangerous for the governing party.
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