What is the imminent danger? 2

What is the imminent danger?

(Aklog Birara)

Listen to what Egyptian generals, political leaders and intellectuals and their backers are saying and make conclusions for yourself. One general made the unbelievable remark that Egypt “has legitimate claim to one-third of Ethiopia.” How did he come to this conclusion? Who has he coopted to do Egypt’s dirty proxy-wars? Is there a secret deal in the same way as the TPLF deal with the Sudanese to cede Ethiopian territory? What we know is that the sieve through which this strategy to weaken and dismantle Ethiopia is the ideology of ethnic elite divide and capture that angers millions of Ethiopians left out from the benefits of growth. For this reason alone, ethnic politics must be replaced by national or Ethiopian politics and institutions fast. Eroding Ethiopian values is a recipe for disaster. Egypt and others are using ethnic elite divisions and political elite aspirants to weaken and dismantle what is left of Ethiopia. The current government leadership and equally the opposition would be wise to set aside differences to save Ethiopia and the Ethiopian people from misery and man-made destruction.

In addition to the repression by the governing party on which much has been said, continued divisions, petty rivalry, jealousy, individualism and in-fighting among Ethiopian opposition, civic, faith, political and intellectual groups is eroding what is left of Ethiopia’s proud culture of patriotism, bravery, sense of community and ability to stand up and fight for the greater good rather than for self, group and other narrow interests. The diminution of core Ethiopian values, for example, undeterred commitment to Ethiopia’s unity and territorial integrity, the country’s right to use its national resources to improve Ethiopian lives, the capacity and willingness to defend human rights and freedoms of citizens at home and abroad without any distinction, etc. diminish our collective will and strengths as a society. I find this to be a more compelling weakness in Ethiopia’s resiliency to withstand external threat than any other variable. Just think of this simple preposition. The ruling party did not have the wisdom from the start to anticipate that ethnic divisions and ethnic elite political and economic capture will ultimately cost. Simply put, the TPLF core and its allies implanted an intolerant political, social and religious society. One cannot expect a different outcome through hate, arrogance, dismissive and accusatory thinking. It is therefore not farfetched to see danger in this construction of governance that fails to serve an enduring national purpose. Ethiopia’s traditional enemies thrive on this. Remember, this is how the TPLF took power. Ethiopia’s enemies have always relied on proxies within to achieve their goals. The secession of Eritrea and the rise of ethnic elites to power is illustrative. Go to any social or political or even religious meeting in the diaspora. Division is everywhere and people think and assume that it is healthy. I am not talking about diversity and diverse thinking; both are healthy. We live in a diverse America. India is diverse and tolerant. Our divisions are scary and damaging to the fabric of Ethiopian society and endanger the very existence of the country. They are antagonistic. What is tragic is that such divisive world views are not limited to the governing party. The culture of division is widespread. The Diaspora is a prime example. Can anyone come up with a reason why Ethiopians with advanced education and who live in Western democracies are incapable to sit together around a conference table, debate ideas and come-up with viable options for their country? Why are opposition groups that reject the TPLF/EPRDF incapable of setting aside non-strategic differences and offer the Ethiopian people a better alternative? Why are civil society groups unable to learn from Armenians? The Irish? The Palestinians? The Jewish community etc. in forming formidable multiethnic civic, human rights and political groups? We cannot attribute the phenomenon solely to the TPLF/EPRDF. The vast human capital of Ethiopians in the Diaspora has done little to nothing to bridge differences and to promote healthy conversations and offer policy alternatives. It has sunk to the status of being self-serving.

We are our own worst enemies

Back to the Egyptian example. I realized in my discussions with many Egyptian experts (in Doha, the GCC and Egypt) that, unlike Ethiopians, Egyptian society is united and speaks with one voice concerning Egyptian hegemony over the Nile. Egyptians seem to understand that Ethiopian society is polarized by political elites and non-caring intellectuals. Egyptians and Saudis are exploiting this division to maximum advantage by financing various groups. In short, Egyptians have a national purpose. On the other hand, the Ethiopian ruling party is more preoccupied with suffocating all forms of dissent using all kinds of pretexts and prolonging its power than in serving Ethiopia’s national interests and the welfare of its diverse population. For example, 23 years after it took power, it has done nothing to allow let alone create an empowering political, social, economic and religious environment that strengthen a sense of Ethiopian community that transcends ethnic and religious affiliation. It has not set in motion the critical conditions that will create national cohesion as Ethiopians. In my estimation, it is such national cohesion and shared prosperity that will serve as buffers against any foreign aggression whether Egyptian or other. Adwa is a prime example. It was a victory of all Ethiopians regardless of wealth, religion or ethnicity. Unfortunately for Ethiopia and its 94 million people, this cohesion won’t occur under current governance. Why? The governing party is incapable of reforming itself. It is afraid of any form of peaceful dissent. I say this for a reason. The danger is all out there for us to see. This phenomenon is much aggravated by a divided civil society and opposition and by a dysfunctional ruling party that does not read the dangers on the horizon and continues suffocating all forms of human rights and freedom. The ruling party’s singular and blind preoccupation with sheer political power and economic capture by the few for the few is a recipe for an impending crisis for which everyone will pay a price.

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