Indian Ocean Newsletter
The general election looming ahead in 2015 is already casting a shadow
over the Ethiopian government, whose sole uniting bond would seem to be its
praise for the memory of its late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.
His portraits are on all the walls in Addis Ababa, which was not the case when he was alive, and in the Federal Assembly a video projector plays his speeches with the aim of inspiring the new MPs. And yet, since Meles Zenawi died in August 2012, the federal government has been rudderless, lacking a descendent.
His successor as Prime Minister, Haile Mariam Desalegn, has neither the grip nor the political clout and has not managed to impose himself on the other political leaders. He frequently has to be content with merely dealing with everyday business. While it is true the Ethiopian State, whose tradition goes back a long way has not fallen into decadence, the different factions and regionalist tendencies are making federal power increasingly fragmented.
His portraits are on all the walls in Addis Ababa, which was not the case when he was alive, and in the Federal Assembly a video projector plays his speeches with the aim of inspiring the new MPs. And yet, since Meles Zenawi died in August 2012, the federal government has been rudderless, lacking a descendent.
His successor as Prime Minister, Haile Mariam Desalegn, has neither the grip nor the political clout and has not managed to impose himself on the other political leaders. He frequently has to be content with merely dealing with everyday business. While it is true the Ethiopian State, whose tradition goes back a long way has not fallen into decadence, the different factions and regionalist tendencies are making federal power increasingly fragmented.
Divisions produce inertia – Going beyond appearances, the ruling
coalition Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Frong (EPRDF) is in
embryonic Crisis state. Its central core, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front
(TPLF), is deeply divided between “provincial” faction led by the Tigray
Regional State President Abay Woldu, and the “modern nationalist” faction
headed by Deputy Prime Minister Debretsion Gebremicahel, not to forget the
various other Tigrayan sub-factions such as those of the elderly Marxist Sebhat
Nega and the Meles Zenawi’s widow Azeb Mesfin.
Facing this inter-Tigrayan squablle, the Amhara in the ANDM and the
Oromo in the OPDO (two of the parties in the ruling coalition) are watching
from the wings, biding their time before they go into the arena. This freezes
the decision-making power, as each faction does not want to make the wrong
decision and yield an advantage to its rivals. In early April, speaking on a
live TV debate (a rare event in itself), Amare Aregawi the editor of The
reporter asked the Prime Minister who is it that makes the decisions in the
office and whether he is capable of making any himself. Much to the surprise of
the viewers who are used to seeing decisiveness on their screens, Haile Mariam
Desalegn mumbled an unconvincing response, confirming that the question had
indeed struck home.
The economy and diplomacy are broken – Ethiopian diplomacy suffers from
a lack of leadership at the top of country. Questions about the situation in
Somalia are left to the head of the Ethiopian army which is intervening
directly in its neighbour’s territory. In the case of the IGAD mediation in the
South Sudan crisis, the former foreign affairs minister Seyoum Mesfin was
recalled from his post of ambassador to Beijing to lead the mediation. He
nevertheless played a fairly effective role of mediator, which was largely
taken over by the Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni even though Ethiopia did at
the time hold the presidency of IGAD.
Similar blockages have produced similar effects in the management of the
State-oned companies. The telephone network run by Ethio Telecom (formerly ETC)
provides a very poor service, mainly because of frequent electricity outages
which also affect the water distribution system when the electric pumps stop
running. The cause is breakdowns of the aging transformers purchased second-hand
from India by the Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCO) several years
ago. Today, EEPCO and ETC are squabbling over who should pay the cost of
renovating the electricity system, a problem which Debretsion Gebremicael, the
chairman of the EEPCO and ETC boards, has been unable to settle.
Regionalism becoming more intense – Since the end of April, the federal
police have brutally repressed student protests against the Master Plan in
several universities in the Oromia Regional State. This Master Plan involves
the expansion of Addis Ababa whose mayor, Diriba Kuma, is also an Oromo.
In the students’ view, this project would eat into Oromo land and reduce
the area their language is used. This is regionalist exacerbation is
illustrated by certain of the student slogans, proclaiming “Oromia for Oromos”
and by the start of misdemeanours against Amhara farmers obliged to leave their
land and take refuge in Addis Ababa.
Certain TPLF officials have no qualms to explain that in their view,
some ultra-regionalist elements of the ruling OPDO are discreetly fueling this
student protest movement against the Master Plan.
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