I think economic progress seems to be achievable without worrying for democracy as we have seen in China. But may not be the same for all countries.The position of the ruling party in Ethiopia is crystal clear that they don't want democracy. Dictatorship and the spirit of communism is still alive and still within their blood. Where there is no rule of law, there are always some risks. Is the economy going to be sustainable? The country is being engulfed with corruption just last year alone $11 billion moved out of the country. Most of the economic sectors are controlled by the government and foreign investors are restricted from investing in such as finance. There is a limited capital flow except the Chinese loans some western aid. Small and medium sized ebusinesses are struggling to get access to credit.The higher inflation rate is exacerbated again also the growing Islamic extremism is putting the country at risk. Abyssinia is still under trouble. The ruling party must believe in democracy. It is safe to gamble with democracy.
Eskinder Nega is present-day Mandela. He is magnanimous enough to even mention about the economic ‘improvements’ in his article; the reality is far from what the Ethiopian ruling clique and its army of ethnic cadre deployed in the west for propaganda purposes try to make out. The economic growth figure is deceptive for a number of reasons. Most important of these include: (a) the massaging of the figures by the statistical agency of the ruling clique. WB/IMF cut the growth rate figure consistently by 50% or so. What is important to bear in mind is that even the WB/IMF figures are based on the erroneous base figures the corrupt statistical agency churns out and (b) whatever little ‘boom’ there is comes from investment in public projects, with very little or no change in productivity. The public and infrastructure projects are vital for the long-term; but they cannot translate into lasting transformation. So, whatever ‘boom’ there is in Addis and other major urban centres is likely to be fragile.
The reality is that the mafia type ruling clique is robbing the country, syphoning huge sums away from the country (here is a credible account on this from the Global Financial Integrity http://www.gfintegrity.org/content/view/482/70/ ). Another recent report by the Economist (http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21584037-government-expands-mobile-phone-network-tightens-its-grip-out-reach ) notes how the ruling clique is putting Ethiopia even in a worse position than even stateless countries such as Somalia. Here is also a further recent account of how the ruling clique has promoted corruption – its primary weapon – to be a synonym with the country (http://www.transparency.org/country#ETH ), which had for long been regarded as corruption free. Overall, whatever economic/social progress achieved in Ethiopia is despite the minority ruling clique; not because of it. Go to Any African country and you see rapid and real (not fake as in Ethiopia) transformation. This is the result of rapidly growing appetite for African resources by China and other emerging economies and favourable terms of trade. In Ethiopia’s case, as Mr. Nega notes, international aid has also played huge role. The country is highly dependent on aid, which finances the expansion in health and education services; and without it there is very little to talk about in Ethiopia. Mr. Nega’s call for democracy is one the ruling clique should heed sooner rather than later. If it does not, it risks a major upheaval sooner or later; and the minority Tigrayans are in line to lose the most when, not if, that happens if the current trend of oppression, embezzlement, ethnic nepotism, etc continue.
Eskinder Nega is present-day Mandela. He is magnanimous enough to even mention about the economic ‘improvements’ in his article; the reality is far from what the Ethiopian ruling clique and its army of ethnic cadre deployed in the west for propaganda purposes try to make out. The economic growth figure is deceptive for a number of reasons. Most important of these include: (a) the massaging of the figures by the statistical agency of the ruling clique. WB/IMF cut the growth rate figure consistently by 50% or so. What is important to bear in mind is that even the WB/IMF figures are based on the erroneous base figures the corrupt statistical agency churns out and (b) whatever little ‘boom’ there is comes from investment in public projects, with very little or no change in productivity. The public and infrastructure projects are vital for the long-term; but they cannot translate into lasting transformation. So, whatever ‘boom’ there is in Addis and other major urban centres is likely to be fragile.
The reality is that the mafia type ruling clique is robbing the country, syphoning huge sums away from the country (here is a credible account on this from the Global Financial Integrity http://www.gfintegrity.org/content/view/482/70/ ). Another recent report by the Economist (http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21584037-government-expands-mobile-phone-network-tightens-its-grip-out-reach ) notes how the ruling clique is putting Ethiopia even in a worse position than even stateless countries such as Somalia. Here is also a further recent account of how the ruling clique has promoted corruption – its primary weapon – to be a synonym with the country (http://www.transparency.org/country#ETH ), which had for long been regarded as corruption free. Overall, whatever economic/social progress achieved in Ethiopia is despite the minority ruling clique; not because of it. Go to Any African country and you see rapid and real (not fake as in Ethiopia) transformation. This is the result of rapidly growing appetite for African resources by China and other emerging economies and favourable terms of trade. In Ethiopia’s case, as Mr. Nega notes, international aid has also played huge role. The country is highly dependent on aid, which finances the expansion in health and education services; and without it there is very little to talk about in Ethiopia. Mr. Nega’s call for democracy is one the ruling clique should heed sooner rather than later. If it does not, it risks a major upheaval sooner or later; and the minority Tigrayans are in line to lose the most when, not if, that happens if the current trend of oppression, embezzlement, ethnic nepotism, etc continue.
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